Getting Ahead of the New Homelessness by 2030

Dr. Alina Turner

Overview

This position paper highlights the urgent need for transformative, systems-level strategies to address a “new homelessness” emerging post-COVID. It argues that conventional approaches are insufficient and calls for multifaceted solutions rooted in data, equity, and community-led innovation.

Key Themes and Insights

1. The New Homelessness Post-COVID

  • Rise in chronic homelessness, visible encampments, and public health risks.
  • New demographics impacted: working families, immigrants, and the previously housed.
  • Pandemic intensified housing pressures, mental health crises, and addiction issues.

2. Core Drivers of Homelessness

  • Interconnected issues: lack of affordable housing, poverty, systemic racism, trauma, climate risks, and service fragmentation.
  • Emphasis on viewing homelessness as a symptom of deeper societal gaps.

3. Forecast to 2030

  • Without intervention, absolute and hidden homelessness is projected to steadily rise.
  • Canada will need 1.3 million non-market housing units and 103,000 supportive care beds.
  • Wraparound supports and housing loss prevention measures are equally critical.

Strategic Gamechangers

A. Systems Planner Organizations (SPOs)

  • Example: Homeward Trust Edmonton – leading in integrated, data-driven planning.
  • Need for SPOs to adopt real-time analytics, AI tools, and community engagement practices.
  • Focus on inflow (prevention), optimization (system design), and outflow (sustained housing).

B. Truly Smart Cities

  • Case Study: Penticton, BC’s integrated systems planning and safety officer program.
  • Cross-sector collaboration and lived experience data are essential for responsive city systems.

Priority Areas for Action

1. Recalibrating the Social Safety Net

  • Canada invests over $1 trillion annually in social services, yet systems remain fragmented.
  • Calls for a national integrated digital platform and regional community hubs.

2. Justice and Health System Reforms

  • Need for better discharge planning and health-based interventions, not punitive responses.
  • Promote complex care centers and early interventions for at-risk individuals.

3. Education and Early Intervention

  • Position schools as front-line identification and support systems.
  • Encourage school-based family hubs and educator training.

4. Personalized & Equitable Systems

  • Services must reflect intersectional realities: gender, race, trauma, rurality.
  • Prioritize culturally safe, trauma-informed care especially in smaller communities.

5. Reconciliation and Indigenous Housing

  • Fund and empower Indigenous-led solutions, expand land rights and self-governance.
  • Address systemic underfunding of small reserves and remote Indigenous communities.

6. Addressing the Housing Supply Gap

  • Embrace social enterprise development models and public-private-community partnerships.
  • Innovate using modular builds, 3D printing, and sustainability practices.

7. Supporting the Frontline

  • Invest in workforce development, mental health supports, and value-based funding models.

Vision for 2030

To end the new homelessness, Canada must:

  • Build 1.3M non-market housing units
  • Invest $165B in social housing and $10B/year in supports
  • Close gaps in emergency shelters, transitional housing, and case management
  • Embrace ESG principles in business and urban planning
  • Coordinate globally to address migration, conflict, and climate pressures

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